Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study
The Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study (short title: "Multi-Path Study") is looking at the vehicle and fuel technology pathways and scenarios that could lead to significant reductions in U.S. petroleum use and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Phase 1 of the study - which is sponsored by the Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis (PBA) - was completed at the end of 2006.
The scope of Phase 1 of the study has been limited to light (i.e.,passenger) vehicles. The methodology has been to construct 10 scenarios representing various mixes of the vehicle and fuel technology pathways - conventional vehicles, advanced clean diesels, alternative-fuel conventional vehicles, hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrids, alternative-fuel hybrids, and fuel-cell vehicles. The scenarios show petroleum savings of anywhere from 10% to 37% by 2030, and 27% to 83% by 2050, relative to VISION model baseline projections (based on the EIA 2006 Reference Case).
The stated goals of Phase 1 were to:
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Identify and assess the technology options available to greatly reduce light vehicle oil use and GHG emissions;
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Integrate the vehicle pathway analyses being done by DOE programs and others while not being bound to the assumption "achieves program goals" in defining technology performance; and
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Develop and evaluate scenarios that combine several pathways, including an evaluation of positive and negative synergies among different vehicle/fuel pathways.
Documentation and details about the project can be accessed via a March 9, 2007, PowerPoint Briefing (PDF 797 KB). Download Adobe Reader
Contact Phil Patterson with any comments or questions.