U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Planning, Budget, and Analysis

Future U.S. Highway Energy Use

Report History

Photo of highway traffic.

In the summer of 2000, the transportation program within the U.S. Department of Energy launched its effort to analyze the long-term (to 2050) energy future of highway transportation in the United States, with a focus on fuel supply and demand.

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Phase I

This report marked the completion of the first phase of that analysis. The report examines the potential for efficient technologies to reduce demand. In working on this report, it became apparent that within a couple of decades the United States will probably need to begin to transition away from conventional oil use in general and in the transportation sector in particular, because world conventional oil production will peak within that time frame.

This Phase I report does not attempt to deal with a number of important issues that are addressed in the Phase II study. For example, fuel and technology prices, worldwide demand for energy, regional issues, and policies were not part of Phase I, but are dealt with in the Phase II effort.

Draft Report

Future U.S. Highway Energy Use: A Fifty Year Perspective - May 2001 (PDF 722 KB)

Phase II

The second phase, 2000 - 2050 North American Transportation Energy Futures, is a joint study by the U.S. Department of Energy and Natural Resources Canada on the evolution of transportation fuels and vehicle technologies under three North American transportation scenarios over a fifty year time period. It expands on the work done by DOE for Future U.S. Highway Energy Use: A Fifty Year Perspective by adding a Canadian perspective to the analysis, including vehicle and fuel costs, and by developing a world oil market model.

The goals of the study were to: (a) develop and understand the evolution of the North American transportation sector to 2050 under various scenarios; (b) identify the technology and fuel options that may be important to these evolutions; and (c) analyze the costs and potential energy consumption, especially of petroleum, and the environmental impacts of the scenarios relative to a base case. The major focus of the study is on-road transport due to its dominant share of the North American transportation market and its nearly exclusive dependence on petroleum-based fuels.

The study sought to explore the following questions:

  1. How can North America manage the predicted decline of conventional oil supplies during this time period?

  2. What are the implications, economic and otherwise, of a transition from conventional oil to alternative feedstocks and/or energy carriers?

  3. What options are available to minimize North America's reliance on imported oil?

  4. In light of the above issues, how can North America achieve lower greenhouse gas emission levels that might be required in the future?

Draft Presentation: The Phase II presentation focuses on the U.S. results - May 2003 (PDF 586 KB).

Other Documents:

  • Joint DOE/NRCan Study of North American Transportation Energy Futures: Discussion of the Study, Presentation of Phase 2 Results (PDF 586 KB), May 2003

  • North America Transportation Energy Futures Study - Long-Term Scenarios to 2050, July 2002 (PDF 149 KB)

  • Phase II Costs, November 2002 (Excel 3.2 MB)

  • Ethanol Pathways In The 2050 North American Transportation Futures Study (draft), April 2003 (PDF 322 KB)

  • Technology Cost Resource Paper (draft), December 2002 (PDF 952KB)

  • Running Into and Out of Oil: Scenarios of Global Oil Use and Resource Depletion to 2050 (draft), July 2002 (PDF 1.3 MB)

  • Literature Review and Recommendations, February 2001 (PDF 153 KB)