U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Office of Budget

Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study

The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles from now to 2050. Sponsored by three programs in EERE (Vehicle Technologies; Fuel Cell Technologies; and the Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis), a key goal of the study is to make these comparisons as accurate and unbiased as possible, and with analytic robustness.

Phase 1 of the study, completed in 2006, was a scoping study, aimed at identifying key analytic issues and constructing a study design. The Phase 1 analysis included an evaluation of several pathways (single-technology vehicles and their associated fuels and fuel production systems, with changes over time as technologies develop) and scenarios (visions of substantial market penetration of one or multiple pathways, tracked over time); however, these analyses were limited in number and scope and were designed to be preliminary. For documentation and details on Phase 1, view the PowerPoint Briefing below.

Phase 2, completed in 2009, examines the full range of pathways of interest to EERE, with multiple scenarios aimed at revealing the issues and impacts associated with a national effort to reduce U.S. dependence on oil use in transportation. Phase 2 expands the scope of the analysis by examining the interactive effects of multiple pathways on each other and on oil and feedstock prices, focusing far more on costs; and substantially increasing the number of metrics used to compare pathways and scenarios. For details, view the full report below.

  • Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses - Main Text and Appendices A, B, C, D, and F (PDF 2.55 MB)
  • Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses - Appendix E (PDF 721 KB)

A summary of the Phase 2 report is available on the Argonne National Laboratory site.

Contact Phil Patterson with any comments or questions.