Oil Issues and Renewables

The Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation (PAE) group at EERE has funded analysis work with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to evaluate issues surrounding oil use and how oil security, independence, and peaking relate to DOE energy efficiency and renewable energy R&D programs.

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Oil Security

David Greene and Paul Leiby of Oak Ridge National Laboratory developed a model for PAE that estimates the energy security value of EERE technologies. Background on the model is available in the presentation "The Oil Security Metrics Model" (PowerPoint 794 KB). The full model documentation (PDF 718 KB) is available on the ORNL Web site.

Oil Independence

Oil independence has been a goal of U.S. energy policy for the past 30 years, yet it has never been rigorously defined. A rigorous, measurable definition is proposed: to reduce the costs of oil dependence to less than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next 20 to 25 years, with 95% probability. A presentation (PowerPoint 790 KB) and paper (PDF 427 KB) on "Oil Independence: Achievable National Goal or Empty Slogan?" are available on this Web site.

Oil Transitions

The report "Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Oil Depletion and Transition through 2050" (PDF 562 KB) presents a risk analysis of world conventional oil resource production, depletion, expansion, and a possible transition to unconventional oil resources (oil sands, heavy oil, and shale oil) during the period 2000 to 2050. Risk analysis uses Monte Carlo simulation methods to produce a probability distribution of outcomes rather than a single value.

The Cost of Oil Dependence

In the study, "Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence: 2005 Update," (PDF 350 KB) oil dependence is defined as the vulnerability to economic costs caused by the use of market power by oil-producing countries. This definition includes more than the costs of disruptions caused by oil price shocks. It includes the loss of output due to higher than competitive market prices, and the transfer of wealth from oil consumers to oil producers as a result of monopolistic pricing.

Oil Peaking

PAE worked with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to sponsor a workshop discussing the implications of an oil peak and/or transition.

Relevant materials include a summary of the workshop (PDF 3.7 MB) by David Greene.

Contact Phil Patterson with any comments or questions.