• Photovoltaics
• Concentrating Solar Power
• Systems Integration
  • Technology Development
  • Grid Integration
  • System Testing & Demonstration
  • Hardware Evaluation & Reliability
  • Systems Analysis
  • Solar Resource Assessment
    • Forecasting
    • Characterization & Data Gathering
    • Tools
  • Codes & Standards

Solar Resource Forecasting

Solar resource forecasting is one of the primary solar resource assessment activities within the Systems Integration subprogram. With the electric grid incorporating larger amounts of solar-generated electricity in the coming years, the need for reliable solar resource forecasts becomes more important.

Due to industry demands for assistance with system planning, the Systems Integration solar resource forecasting activities are focused on developing capabilities at various intervals to support system operations. The intervals include:

• Short-term forecasting of less than 1 hour to 3 hours ahead for regulating frequency and following load
• Mid-term day ahead forecasting for committing generation units
• Long-term forecasting in advance of seasonal and annual change for system planning and economic analyses.

Solar resource forecasting is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The long-term research goals address the needs of the commercial forecasting industry and electric utilities for independent method validation.

In 2010 the national laboratories will continue to evaluate solar resource forecasting methodologies as well as industry requirements for these methodologies. In addition, the labs will test various concepts, such as the use of Total Sky Imagers, at specific central solar station locations to determine how on-site observations can be used to supplement existing solar resource forecasting.