EIA Forecasts Large Growth in World Energy Demand through 2030

June 21, 2006

The world's consumption of energy is projected to grow 71 percent by 2030, with energy use in China, India, and other developing countries growing the fastest, according to DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA's "International Energy Outlook 2006," released on June 20th, boosts the projected cost of oil in 2025 to $57 per barrel (a 35 percent increase over last year's projection), causing a decrease in oil demand and a shift to natural gas and coal. But petroleum demand is still projected to grow significantly, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030, a 47 percent increase above the petroleum demand in 2003. The United States, China, and India cause more than half of the projected growth in oil demand. In the EIA reference case, which does not include policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions increase from 25 billion metric tons in 2003 to 43.7 billion metric tons in 2030, with developing countries accounting for three-quarters of the projected growth. See the EIA press release and the full report.

Those long-term trends are already apparent in the world energy statistics for 2005, which were recently released by BP. According to the BP report, world energy consumption increased 2.7 percent in 2005, with China accounting for more than half the growth. The report also shows a 1 percent increase in world petroleum consumption in 2005, to more than 81 million barrels per day. Oil sold at an average of $54.52 per barrel, a 40 percent increase over 2004 prices. As a result, the growth in petroleum use in China slowed to 200,000 barrels per day, one-fifth of last year's growth, while petroleum use in the United States actually dropped by 75,000 barrels per day. Natural gas consumption also dropped in the United States, but experienced a 2.3 percent growth worldwide, while coal consumption grew by 5 percent. China was responsible for 80 percent of the growth in demand for coal. See the report, "Statistical Review of World Energy 2006," on the BP Web site.