Fact #267: May 12, 2003
Oil Price Relationship to Economic Growth in the United States, 1970–2002
Major oil price shocks have disrupted world energy markets four times in the past 30 years (1973–1974, 1979–1980, 1990–1991, and 1999–2000). Each of the first three shocks was followed by an economic recession in the United States.
In the report Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update, Greene and Tishchishyna indicate that the oil market upheavals caused by the OPEC cartel during the past 30 years have cost the United States about $7 trillion (present value 1998 dollars) in total economic costs.
Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1970–2002
Supporting Information
| Year | GDP Growth Rate | Oil Price 2000 Constant ($/bbl) |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 0.18% | $12.51 |
| 1971 | 3.35% | $12.61 |
| 1972 | 5.43% | $12.03 |
| 1973 | 5.77% | $13.20 |
| 1974 | -0.59% | $26.47 |
| 1975 | -0.36% | $27.72 |
| 1976 | 5.57% | $27.52 |
| 1977 | 4.64% | $28.40 |
| 1978 | 5.51% | $27.61 |
| 1979 | 3.18% | $36.25 |
| 1980 | -0.23% | $52.60 |
| 1981 | 2.45% | $60.39 |
| 1982 | -2.03% | $51.42 |
| 1983 | 4.33% | $44.99 |
| 1984 | 7.27% | $42.84 |
| 1985 | 3.85% | $38.80 |
| 1986 | 3.42% | $20.65 |
| 1987 | 3.40% | $24.66 |
| 1988 | 4.17% | $19.55 |
| 1989 | 3.51% | $23.07 |
| 1990 | 1.76% | $27.45 |
| 1991 | -0.47% | $22.72 |
| 1992 | 3.05% | $21.45 |
| 1993 | 2.65% | $18.65 |
| 1994 | 4.04% | $17.36 |
| 1995 | 2.67% | $18.77 |
| 1996 | 3.57% | $22.14 |
| 1997 | 4.43% | $19.96 |
| 1998 | 4.28% | $12.97 |
| 1999 | 4.11% | $17.88 |
| 2000 | 3.75% | $28.26 |
| 2001 | 0.25% | $22.42 |
| 2002 | 2.45% | $23.27 |
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Source: D. L. Greene, and N.I. Tishchishyna, Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2000/152, Oak Ridge, TN, 2000 and data updates. | ||
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