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Fact #465: April 16, 2007
The Petroleum Gap

(Revised April 18, 2007)

Since 1989, the transportation sector alone has used more petroleum than the United States produces. The current projections indicate that by the year 2030, the transportation sector will consume nearly twice as much petroleum as the United States produces.

U.S. Petroleum Production and Consumption, 1970-2030
Graph showing U.S. petroleum production and consumption from 1970 to 2030. For more detailed information, see the table below.

Notes:

  • The U.S. Production has two lines after 2005. The solid line is conventional sources of petroleum. The dashed line adds in other inputs -- ethanol and liquids from coal. Historical petroleum production includes crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gains, and other inputs, which include liquids from gas, liquids from coal, and alcohols, ethers, petroleum product stock withdrawals, domestic sources of blending components, other hydrocarbons, and natural gas converted to liquid fuel.
  • The sharp increase in values between 2005 and 2006 is caused by the data change from historical to projected values.

Supporting Information


Historical and Future U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Petroleum Use
(Million barrels per day)
Year Autos Light Trucks Medium & Heavy Trucks Total Highway Air Water Off-Highway Rail Pipeline Total Transportation U.S. Petroleum Production without Other Inputs 2006-on U.S. Petroleum Production with Other Inputs 2006-on (dotted line)
1971 4.22 0.80 0.82 5.84 0.62 0.35 0.34 0.26 0.48 7.89 11.54 11.54
1972 4.50 0.89 0.90 6.29 0.62 0.36 0.33 0.28 0.49 8.37 11.57 11.57
1973 4.63 0.99 0.99 6.61 0.65 0.41 0.34 0.29 0.47 8.77 11.40 11.40
1974 4.40 0.98 0.99 6.37 0.59 0.40 0.31 0.29 0.44 8.41 10.94 10.94
1975 4.40 1.13 1.00 6.53 0.60 0.42 0.32 0.27 0.40 8.53 10.47 10.47
1976 4.65 1.23 1.06 6.94 0.63 0.49 0.33 0.28 0.38 9.05 10.21 10.21
1977 4.70 1.32 1.17 7.19 0.64 0.54 0.32 0.28 0.37 9.34 10.39 10.39
1978 4.80 1.43 1.30 7.52 0.67 0.64 0.31 0.28 0.37 9.79 10.77 10.77
1979 4.56 1.44 1.34 7.34 0.70 0.74 0.32 0.29 0.41 9.80 10.66 10.66
1980 4.17 1.41 1.34 6.91 0.68 0.64 0.32 0.28 0.43 9.25 10.77 10.77
1981 4.12 1.40 1.36 6.87 0.69 0.74 0.30 0.27 0.43 9.30 10.69 10.69
1982 4.11 1.34 1.35 6.80 0.68 0.61 0.28 0.23 0.41 9.01 10.73 10.73
1983 4.17 1.41 1.38 6.96 0.68 0.57 0.28 0.23 0.35 9.06 10.73 10.73
1984 4.18 1.51 1.43 7.12 0.76 0.58 0.34 0.25 0.37 9.43 11.06 11.06
1985 4.23 1.61 1.43 7.28 0.79 0.58 0.35 0.24 0.36 9.60 11.14 11.14
1986 4.33 1.71 1.47 7.51 0.86 0.58 0.35 0.23 0.35 9.89 10.85 10.85
1987 4.34 1.80 1.52 7.66 0.90 0.59 0.36 0.24 0.37 10.11 10.58 10.58
1988 4.34 1.93 1.55 7.82 0.93 0.60 0.36 0.24 0.41 10.36 10.42 10.42
1989 4.37 1.96 1.59 7.93 0.94 0.61 0.34 0.25 0.42 10.49 9.82 9.82
1990 4.12 2.10 1.65 7.87 0.98 0.66 0.36 0.24 0.44 10.55 9.60 9.60
1991 3.80 2.25 1.69 7.75 0.92 0.70 0.36 0.23 0.41 10.37 9.79 9.79
1992 3.87 2.42 1.73 8.01 0.93 0.74 0.34 0.23 0.40 10.66 9.64 9.64
1993 3.96 2.53 1.78 8.27 0.94 0.66 0.30 0.24 0.42 10.83 9.35 9.35
1994 4.01 2.60 1.87 8.49 0.98 0.64 0.31 0.26 0.45 11.12 9.16 9.16
1995 4.02 2.69 1.95 8.66 1.01 0.67 0.32 0.27 0.46 11.38 9.10 9.10
1996 4.09 2.80 2.00 8.88 1.04 0.65 0.32 0.27 0.46 11.63 9.13 9.13
1997 4.13 2.91 2.02 9.06 1.09 0.57 0.34 0.27 0.49 11.81 9.12 9.12
1998 4.23 2.98 2.09 9.30 1.12 0.56 0.34 0.28 0.43 12.02 8.90 8.90
1999 4.33 3.12 2.29 9.73 1.17 0.63 0.32 0.29 0.43 12.56 8.62 8.62
2000 4.31 3.12 2.37 9.80 1.20 0.67 0.33 0.29 0.43 12.72 8.68 8.68
2001 4.34 3.15 2.37 9.86 1.14 0.54 0.35 0.29 0.42 12.59 8.57 8.57
2002 4.45 3.25 2.47 10.16 1.05 0.57 0.36 0.29 0.44 12.86 8.58 8.58
2003 4.38 3.30 2.52 10.20 1.05 0.49 0.36 0.30 0.44 12.84 8.37 8.37
2004 4.72 4.11 2.36 11.19 1.33 0.46 0.37 0.31 0.47 14.14 8.27 8.27
2005 4.67 4.21 2.40 11.27 1.37 0.49 0.38 0.31 0.49 14.30 8.58 8.58
2006 4.65 4.29 2.47 11.40 1.36 0.49 0.38 0.32 0.48 14.43 7.90 8.88
2007 4.73 4.46 2.54 11.73 1.39 0.49 0.39 0.32 0.46 14.79 8.37 9.22
2008 4.77 4.59 2.60 11.96 1.45 0.49 0.40 0.33 0.46 15.09 8.59 9.44
2009 4.80 4.75 2.66 12.21 1.49 0.48 0.42 0.34 0.45 15.39 8.71 9.71
2010 4.83 4.93 2.72 12.48 1.54 0.48 0.42 0.34 0.44 15.70 8.68 9.87
2011 4.84 5.08 2.79 12.71 1.60 0.48 0.42 0.35 0.45 16.02 8.73 10.01
2012 4.85 5.23 2.84 12.92 1.66 0.49 0.44 0.35 0.46 16.32 8.80 10.14
2013 4.85 5.37 2.89 13.11 1.70 0.49 0.44 0.36 0.46 16.56 8.73 10.26
2014 4.86 5.51 2.93 13.30 1.73 0.49 0.45 0.36 0.47 16.80 8.89 10.31
2015 4.86 5.65 2.97 13.48 1.75 0.49 0.45 0.36 0.50 17.05 9.01 10.34
2016 4.86 5.78 3.01 13.66 1.78 0.50 0.45 0.37 0.53 17.29 9.05 10.47
2017 4.87 5.91 3.06 13.85 1.81 0.50 0.46 0.37 0.54 17.53 9.07 10.43
2018 4.89 6.06 3.11 14.05 1.84 0.50 0.47 0.38 0.55 17.79 9.05 10.41
2019 4.90 6.19 3.15 14.24 1.87 0.50 0.48 0.38 0.55 18.01 9.07 10.40
2020 4.92 6.32 3.19 14.42 1.89 0.50 0.48 0.38 0.55 18.23 9.07 10.45
2021 4.93 6.44 3.24 14.60 1.90 0.51 0.48 0.39 0.55 18.42 9.06 10.49
2022 4.94 6.56 3.28 14.79 1.90 0.51 0.48 0.40 0.54 18.62 9.03 10.46
2023 4.97 6.67 3.34 14.97 1.91 0.51 0.49 0.41 0.54 18.83 8.97 10.46
2024 4.99 6.78 3.39 15.17 1.91 0.51 0.50 0.41 0.54 19.04 8.85 10.46
2025 5.02 6.90 3.45 15.36 1.92 0.51 0.50 0.42 0.54 19.25 8.76 10.44
2026 5.05 7.02 3.51 15.58 1.93 0.51 0.50 0.43 0.54 19.48 8.68 10.47
2027 5.08 7.14 3.57 15.79 1.94 0.52 0.51 0.43 0.53 19.72 8.65 10.47
2028 5.11 7.26 3.63 16.01 1.95 0.52 0.51 0.44 0.53 19.96 8.60 10.51
2029 5.15 7.38 3.70 16.23 1.96 0.52 0.52 0.45 0.53 20.21 8.58 10.48
2030 5.18 7.51 3.77 16.46 1.98 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.53 20.47 8.59 10.42

Sources:
1970-2005 from Davis, S. C. and Diegel, S. W., 2007, "Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 26," Oak Ridge National Laboratory Report, Oak Ridge, TN forthcoming. (Energy Use by Mode from Tables 2.6 & 2.7).
1970-2005 from EIA, 2006, "Annual Energy Review 2006," Energy Information Administration Report, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (U.S. Petroleum Production from Table 5.1, (Total production plus other domestic supply).
2006-2030 from EIA, 2007, "Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030," Energy Information Administration Report, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Energy Use from Table 7 & 33, U.S. Petroleum Production from Table 11: domestic crude plus NG liquids plus refinery gain plus other inputs).
1970-1986 off-road data from Highway Statistics, Table MF-221.
1986-2005 off-road data from Fuel Oil & Kerosene Report, Table 13.

 

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