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Fact #516: April 28, 2008
The Petroleum Gap

In 1989 the transportation sector petroleum consumption surpassed U.S. petroleum production for the first time, creating a gap that must be met with imports of petroleum. By the year 2030, transportation petroleum consumption is expected to grow to 18 million barrels per day; at that time, the gap between U.S. production and transportation consumption will be 7.5 million barrels per day.

This graph shows light vehicle consumption estimates in 2030 to be 2.4 million barrels per day lower than in the 2007 version (see Fact of the Week #465) due to reductions expected from the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards.

U.S. Petroleum Production and Consumption, 1970-2030
Graph showing the gap between the U.S. petroleum production and the consumption in the transportation sector (cars, light trucks, heavy trucks, rail, marine, off-road, and air) for the time period 1970 to 2030. For more detailed information, see the table below.
  • The U.S. Production has two lines after 2005. The solid line is conventional sources of petroleum. The dashed line adds in other inputs -- ethanol and liquids from coal. Historical petroleum production includes crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gains, and other inputs, which include liquids from gas, liquids from coal, and alcohols, ethers, petroleum product stock withdrawals, domestic sources of blending components, other hydrocarbons, and natural gas converted to liquid fuel.
  • The sharp increase in values between 2005 and 2006 is caused by the data change from historical to projected values.

Supporting Information

Historical and Future U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Petroleum Use (Million barrels per day)
Year Autos Light
Trucks		 Medium &
Heavy
Trucks		 Total
Highway		 Air Water Off-
Highway		 Rail Pipeline Total
Transportation		 U.S. Petroleum Production without Other Inputs 2006-on U.S. Petroleum Production with Other Inputs 2006-on (dotted line)
1970 4.01 0.73 0.79 5.53 0.62 0.40 0.35 0.26 0.47 7.62 11.66 11.66
1971 4.22 0.80 0.82 5.84 0.62 0.37 0.34 0.26 0.48 7.91 11.54 11.54
1972 4.50 0.89 0.90 6.29 0.62 0.38 0.33 0.28 0.49 8.38 11.60 11.60
1973 4.63 0.99 0.99 6.61 0.65 0.43 0.34 0.29 0.47 8.79 11.40 11.40
1974 4.40 0.98 0.99 6.37 0.59 0.42 0.31 0.29 0.44 8.43 10.94 10.94
1975 4.40 1.13 1.00 6.53 0.60 0.44 0.32 0.26 0.40 8.54 10.47 10.47
1976 4.65 1.23 1.06 6.94 0.63 0.51 0.33 0.27 0.38 9.06 10.24 10.24
1977 4.70 1.32 1.17 7.19 0.64 0.56 0.32 0.27 0.37 9.36 10.39 10.39
1978 4.80 1.43 1.30 7.52 0.67 0.65 0.31 0.27 0.37 9.80 10.77 10.77
1979 4.56 1.44 1.34 7.34 0.70 0.76 0.32 0.28 0.41 9.81 10.66 10.66
1980 4.17 1.41 1.34 6.91 0.68 0.66 0.32 0.27 0.43 9.26 10.80 10.80
1981 4.12 1.40 1.36 6.87 0.69 0.76 0.30 0.26 0.43 9.31 10.69 10.69
1982 4.11 1.34 1.35 6.80 0.68 0.63 0.28 0.22 0.41 9.03 10.73 10.73
1983 4.17 1.41 1.38 6.96 0.68 0.59 0.28 0.22 0.35 9.08 10.73 10.73
1984 4.18 1.51 1.43 7.12 0.76 0.60 0.34 0.25 0.37 9.44 11.09 11.09
1985 4.23 1.61 1.43 7.28 0.79 0.60 0.35 0.23 0.36 9.61 11.14 11.14
1986 4.33 1.71 1.47 7.51 0.86 0.60 0.35 0.23 0.35 9.90 10.85 10.85
1987 4.34 1.80 1.52 7.66 0.90 0.61 0.36 0.23 0.37 10.12 10.58 10.58
1988 4.34 1.93 1.55 7.82 0.93 0.62 0.36 0.24 0.41 10.38 10.45 10.45
1989 4.37 1.96 1.59 7.93 0.94 0.63 0.34 0.24 0.42 10.50 9.82 9.82
1990 4.12 2.10 1.65 7.87 0.98 0.68 0.36 0.24 0.44 10.57 9.60 9.60
1991 3.80 2.26 1.69 7.75 0.92 0.72 0.36 0.22 0.41 10.38 9.79 9.79
1992 3.87 2.42 1.73 8.01 0.93 0.76 0.34 0.23 0.40 10.67 9.67 9.67
1993 3.96 2.53 1.78 8.27 0.94 0.68 0.30 0.23 0.42 10.84 9.35 9.35
1994 4.01 2.61 1.87 8.49 0.98 0.66 0.31 0.26 0.45 11.15 9.16 9.16
1995 4.02 2.69 1.95 8.66 1.01 0.69 0.32 0.27 0.46 11.41 9.10 9.10
1996 4.09 2.79 2.00 8.88 1.04 0.67 0.32 0.27 0.46 11.65 9.16 9.16
1997 4.13 2.91 2.02 9.06 1.09 0.59 0.34 0.27 0.49 11.83 9.12 9.12
1998 4.23 2.98 2.08 9.30 1.12 0.58 0.34 0.28 0.43 12.04 8.90 8.90
1999 4.33 3.12 2.29 9.73 1.17 0.65 0.32 0.29 0.43 12.58 8.62 8.62
2000 4.31 3.12 2.37 9.81 1.20 0.69 0.33 0.29 0.43 12.74 8.70 8.70
2001 4.34 3.15 2.37 9.86 1.14 0.56 0.35 0.29 0.42 12.62 8.57 8.57
2002 4.45 3.25 2.47 10.17 1.05 0.59 0.36 0.29 0.44 12.89 8.58 8.58
2003 4.38 3.57 2.40 10.35 1.05 0.51 0.36 0.30 0.40 12.97 8.37 8.37
2004 4.42 3.71 2.23 10.37 1.11 0.61 0.37 0.31 0.39 13.16 8.30 8.30
2005 4.33 3.83 2.25 10.41 1.17 0.65 0.38 0.31 0.40 13.32 7.88 7.88
2006 4.33 4.59 2.46 11.39 1.32 0.61 0.38 0.28 0.40 14.38 8.29 7.83
2007 4.38 4.71 2.50 11.60 1.28 0.64 0.39 0.29 0.43 14.63 8.62 7.86
2008 4.38 4.74 2.50 11.62 1.29 0.64 0.40 0.29 0.42 14.66 8.80 7.89
2009 4.38 4.82 2.53 11.73 1.31 0.63 0.42 0.29 0.43 14.81 9.22 8.34
2010 4.37 4.91 2.61 11.88 1.35 0.63 0.42 0.29 0.44 15.02 9.70 8.66
2011 4.33 4.98 2.69 12.00 1.40 0.63 0.42 0.30 0.44 15.20 9.85 8.69
2012 4.32 5.07 2.73 12.12 1.46 0.64 0.44 0.31 0.44 15.41 9.91 8.70
2013 4.31 5.16 2.76 12.23 1.51 0.64 0.44 0.31 0.44 15.58 10.02 8.75
2014 4.28 5.26 2.79 12.33 1.53 0.64 0.45 0.31 0.44 15.71 10.16 8.80
2015 4.26 5.35 2.81 12.43 1.56 0.64 0.45 0.32 0.45 15.85 10.38 8.91
2016 4.24 5.44 2.84 12.52 1.59 0.65 0.45 0.32 0.45 15.99 10.51 8.98
2017 4.21 5.52 2.86 12.59 1.62 0.65 0.46 0.32 0.45 16.10 10.63 9.01
2018 4.17 5.58 2.88 12.64 1.65 0.65 0.47 0.33 0.45 16.19 10.75 9.03
2019 4.15 5.65 2.91 12.72 1.69 0.66 0.48 0.33 0.45 16.31 10.84 9.00
2020 4.12 5.71 2.94 12.76 1.72 0.66 0.48 0.33 0.47 16.42 10.92 8.95
2021 4.11 5.78 2.96 12.85 1.75 0.66 0.48 0.34 0.49 16.56 10.99 8.83
2022 4.10 5.87 2.99 12.96 1.78 0.66 0.48 0.34 0.49 16.71 11.13 8.77
2023 4.05 5.90 3.02 12.97 1.81 0.67 0.49 0.34 0.49 16.77 11.07 8.71
2024 4.01 5.93 3.04 12.98 1.84 0.67 0.50 0.35 0.49 16.83 11.04 8.69
2025 3.96 5.94 3.07 12.98 1.87 0.67 0.50 0.35 0.49 16.85 10.96 8.62
2026 3.93 5.99 3.10 13.02 1.89 0.67 0.50 0.35 0.49 16.94 10.94 8.60
2027 3.91 6.04 3.14 13.09 1.92 0.68 0.51 0.36 0.49 17.04 10.88 8.52
2028 3.90 6.09 3.17 13.15 1.95 0.68 0.51 0.36 0.49 17.15 10.75 8.36
2029 3.88 6.14 3.19 13.22 1.98 0.68 0.52 0.36 0.49 17.25 10.64 8.24
2030 3.88 6.21 3.23 13.31 2.01 0.68 0.52 0.36 0.49 17.38 10.57 8.16

Sources: 1970-2005 from Davis, S. C. and Diegel, S. W., 2007, "Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 26," Oak Ridge National Laboratory Report, Oak Ridge, TN forthcoming. (Energy Use by Mode from Tables 2.6 & 2.7).
1970-2005 from EIA, 2006, "Annual Energy Review 2006," Energy Information Administration Report, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (U.S. Petroleum Production from Table 5.1, (Total production plus other domestic supply).
2006-2030 from EIA, 2008, "Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030," Energy Information Administration Report, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
(Energy Use from Table 7, U.S. Petroleum Production from Table 11: domestic crude plus NG liquids plus refinery gain plus other inputs).
1970-1986 off-road data from Highway Statistics, Table MF-221.1986-2005 off-road data from Fuel Oil & Kerosene Report, Table 13.

 

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