U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Vehicle Technologies Office

Fact #495: November 12, 2007
Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006

Major oil price shocks have disrupted world energy markets four times in the past 30 years – 1973-74, 1979-80, 1990-1991 and 1999-2000. Each of the first three oil price shocks was followed by an economic recession in the U.S. The GDP has continued to grow despite the rising oil prices in recent years (2002-2006).

Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1970-2006
Graph showing the relation between U.S. economic growth (gross domestic product) and the price of oil from 1971 to 2006. The chart indicates that the latest rise in oil prices (2002-2006) has not affected the GDP has it has in the past. For more detailed information, see the table below.

Supporting Information

Oil Price and Economic Growth, 1971-2006
Year Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate Oil Price (2000 constant dollars per barrel)
1971 3.36% $ 12.45
1972 5.29% $ 11.87
1973 5.76% $ 13.03
1974 -0.50% $ 26.12
1975 -0.19% $ 27.31
1976 5.33% $ 27.09
1977 4.62% $ 27.98
1978 5.57% $ 27.23
1979 3.16% $ 35.76
1980 -0.23% $ 51.94
1981 2.52% $ 59.61
1982 -1.94% $ 50.81
1983 4.52% $ 44.46
1984 7.19% $ 42.32
1985 4.13% $ 38.37
1986 3.47% $ 20.42
1987 3.38% $ 24.45
1988 4.13% $ 19.38
1989 3.54% $ 22.88
1990 1.88% $ 27.23
1991 -0.17% $ 22.57
1992 3.33% $ 21.33
1993 2.67% $ 18.57
1994 4.02% $ 17.27
1995 2.50% $ 18.71
1996 3.70% $ 22.07
1997 4.50% $ 19.96
1998 4.17% $ 12.98
1999 4.45% $ 17.89
2000 3.66% $ 28.26
2001 0.75% $ 22.41
2002 1.60% $ 23.13
2003 2.51% $ 26.81
2004 3.64% $ 33.78
2005 3.07% $ 44.46
2006 2.87% $ 51.68

Note: Oil price is the composite refiner acquisition cost.
Source: Greene, D.L. and N.I. Tishchishyna, Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2000/152, Oak Ridge, TN, 2000, and data updates.

 

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